Planning a banner: how many summons do you actually need?
Soft pity, the coin flip, and the number that matters — worked through without a spreadsheet.
The number nobody quotes
The advertised rate is 0.6%. That figure is close to meaningless, because it stops applying around summon 74 when the rate begins climbing steeply toward the guarantee at 90. What you actually want is the average cost of a five-star, which lands near 62 summons, and the average cost of a specific featured five-star, which is roughly double that once the coin flip is included.
Working it through
- Losing the coin flip is not a disaster. It guarantees the next one.
- Starting from a guaranteed state roughly halves the expected cost.
- Pity carries between banners. It does not reset when one ends.
The pull planner does this arithmetic exactly, from your current pity and whether your guarantee is up. Same maths, run properly rather than estimated.
What to do with the answer
If the planner says you are twenty summons short and the banner has three weeks left, dailies and one Spire clear will cover it. If it says two hundred, no amount of dailies will, and the honest advice is to skip and save.
A guide that never tells you to skip a banner is not a guide. It is an advertisement.